Earnings

LLY Q3 2025 Earnings | Core-Brief

30 Oct 2025 — 3 min read

1) Headline quarter

Revenue +54% y/y vs Q3’24 — huge for a company this size.
Growth was driven by the GLP-1/twin incretin franchise (Mounjaro / Zepbound) plus newer launches.
Strength was broad enough that they raised 2025 guidance to $63.0–63.5B revenue and $23.00–23.70 non-GAAP EPS.
Performance margin (gross – opex) jumped to 48% thanks to volume leverage.

In the US, Lilly now has ~6 of every 10 Rxs in the incretin class — fifth straight quarter of share gains.
Mounjaro (T2D) and Zepbound (obesity) both grew; US Zepbound scripts tripled vs Q3’24.
The CVS template/formulary noise? “Disruptive” for patients, modest for Lilly — they exited Q3 with 71% share of new obesity Rxs.
Ex-US, uptake is very strong even with limited obesity reimbursement — ~75% of Mounjaro sales ex-US are from people with obesity paying out of pocket. That tells you demand is price-tolerant because benefit is obvious.

This is why the call was so long 🚨

They now have 6 phase 3s with positive data across obesity + T2D.
In people with obesity + T2D, orforglipron delivered ~10–11% weight loss (36 mg) — in line with injectable GLP-1 monotherapy. That’s the whole ambition of the program.
In Achieve 3, orforglipron beat oral semaglutide (highest dose) on both A1C (-2.2%) and weight (≈9 kg / ~20 lbs).
Lilly says this now “completes” the package to start global submissions for obesity → first launch targeted in the US next year.
They are very explicit: this is the scalable, daily-pill version of the class — no fridge, easier manufacturing → this is how you go from millions of patients to tens/hundreds of millions.

It’s the first study to ask: “If a patient loses weight on Wegovy / Zepbound, can I maintain most of that loss on the oral?”
If that works, Lilly can defend the injectable franchise and grow total treated patients by giving docs a cheaper/simpler maintenance option.

Retatrutide (GIP/GLP-1/glucagon) phase 3 program (TRIUMPH / TRANSCEND) is running → they expect deeper and faster weight loss than tirzepatide.
Lilly basically said: not everyone needs this, but people with very high BMI or obesity-related complications do. That’s how they plan to segment the market and protect price/mix.

Two new US sites (VA for biologics/ADCs, TX + PR expansion for small molecules incl. orforglipron).
Two more US facilities to be announced → this is all about not being capacity-constrained like 2023–24.

Inlura (camizestrant) FDA-approved for ER+/HER2–, ESR1-mut, advanced/metastatic breast cancer.
Donanemab Europe: approved for early symptomatic Alzheimer’s.
Pirtobrutinib nailed another CLL phase 3 (vs chemo-immuno) → strongest effect size seen for a single BTKi in treatment-naive CLL, per Lilly.
Oral Lp(a) inhibitor moved to phase 3 — first small-molecule approach there.

They actually welcomed the Cigna/GPO-style shift → more transparent, more clinical-value-based, fewer games with rebates = good for innovators with the best data.
On US GLP-1 pricing: Q3 showed no blow-up even after the CVS change; price erosion was “as expected.”
On IRA/sema pricing: they called out that tirzepatide has better head-to-head data → they feel good about value discussions even if semaglutide’s Part D price goes lower in 2027.