Earnings

🏎️ Rivian ($RIVN) Q3 2025 Earnings — Core Brief Edition

Core-Brief

05 Nov 2025 — 2 min read

Headline: R2 on track for 1H26 launch; software/JV momentum lifts mix while 2025 guidance is reaffirmed and cost/ tariff headwinds ease into Q4.

📊 Key Metrics

Consolidated revenue (GAAP): $1,600M.
Gross profit (GAAP): $24M (includes $125M depreciation; $24M SBC).
Adjusted EBITDA: -$602M.
Automotive revenue: $1,100M; Automotive gross profit: -$130M (fixed-cost absorption from R2 prep).
Software & Services revenue: $416M; gross profit: $154M (≈half from VW JV).
Production: 10,720 vehicles (Normal, IL).
Cash & equivalents: $7,100M.

🧭 Segment & Strategy Highlights

R2 program: Design/manufacturing validation on track; commissioning robots; paint-shop updates lift Normal capacity to 215k/yr (R2 share 155k). R2 targets the largest US segment (5-seat midsize SUV) with starting price $45,000.
Capacity roadmap: Georgia plant to add 400k units for R2/R3 (groundbreaking done; 7,500 jobs expected).
Unit economics: Q3 COGS per delivered vehicle $96,300; improvement driven by material costs; R2 targeted to be ~50% lower BOM vs R1.
VW JV: Ongoing milestones; background IP income building; first products include the Volkswagen “ID 1” (~$22k EV) leveraging Rivian tech, with $2.5B total JV capital expected (incl. $2.0B in 2026).
Mind Robotics (spin-out): $110M seed raised to develop AI-enabled industrial robotics; Rivian is a shareholder and anchor customer.

🤖 Product, Tech, AI

Autonomy & AI Day: Dec 11, 2025 to showcase hardware, software, and data flywheel (R1 Gen-2 + R2 fleets).
Roadmap: Expand hands-free coverage → point-to-point (address-to-address) → selective eyes-off in defined domains; focus first on consumer-owned vehicles (>95% of U.S. miles).
Battery: R2 to launch with 4695 LG cells; U.S. production in Arizona targeted from late 2026.

⚖️ Credit, Trade & Regulatory

Tariffs: Section 232 MSRP offset extended to 2030 and parts scope widened—per-unit tariff impact trending from “~couple thousand” in Q3 to a few hundred dollars on new builds as policies phase in.
Regulatory credits: Excluded from 2025–2026 forecasts amid policy uncertainty.
Demand tone: Noted September pull-forward ahead of IRA credit expiry; softer October industry-wide; Rivian emphasizes product strength over cycle noise.
No hybrids/e-REVs: Strategy remains pure EV.

💼 Balance Sheet & Capital

Cash: $7.1B; working capital improved YTD but expected to consume cash in Q4 and 2026 (R2 inventory build).
DOE loan: Up to $6.6B project finance; first draw expected after Georgia vertical construction commences.
Capex: Step-up in Q4 2025; 2026 to include Georgia vertical construction (details to come with Q4 results).

🔭 Guidance / Outlook (explicit)

2025 deliveries: 41,500–43,500 (reaffirmed).
2025 adj. EBITDA loss: $2.0–$2.25B (reaffirmed).
2025 capex: $1.8–$1.9B (reaffirmed).
2025 gross profit: ~break-even for the full year.
R2 launch cadence: 1H26 limited volumes; H2-26 ramp; exit 2026 with positive unit economics/gross profit on R2.
R3 timing: To be produced only in Georgia; plant targeted to start vehicles late 2028.
Near-term mix/Q4: Stable EDV volumes (lower cost basis) and growing Software & Services contribution support margin trajectory.

✅ Bottom Line

Rivian is executing against an R2-led, capital-light(er) mix with software/JV income building alongside manufacturing readiness. Cost per unit and tariff pressure are easing into Q4, while R2 aims at the heart of the U.S. market with a clear path to positive unit economics by end-2026 and an expanding autonomy roadmap.