S&P 500 Sector Sentiment — 2026-02-09
S&P 500 Sector Sentiment — 2026-02-09
Current tone: neutral
Latest score: 47.9/100
Cross-sector dispersion: 93.0 pts
In our finance newsletter, we continue to highlight key market trends with a focus on sector performance and forward return potential. As the current score stands at , Materials and Industrials are leading among their peers in terms of sentiment towards positive future returns. Conversely, Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors lag behind due to concerns over recent developments.
Scan the Forward return playbook for context, then the Sector map for leadership and laggards.
Leaders include Materials, Industrials.
Laggards include Technology, Consumer Disc..
Forward return playbook (SPX)
Historical medians and hit ratios from past dates that looked similar to today (conditional on the sentiment regime + a tight score band).
| Horizon | Median SPX | Hit Ratio | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 0.7% | 59.7% | 392 |
| 3M | 1.2% | 62.0% | 392 |
| 6M | 2.0% | 64.3% | 392 |
| 12M | 6.6% | 73.2% | 392 |
Sector map (0=cold, 100=hot)
Leading / Hot
- Materials: 99.0/100
- Industrials: 91.0/100
- Real Estate: 90.7/100
Lagging / Cold
- Technology: 6.0/100
- Consumer Disc.: 9.8/100
- Financials: 11.8/100
Neutral
- Consumer Staples: 62.2/100
- Comm. Services: 55.9/100
- Utilities: 32.8/100
- Health Care: 20.0/100
Read-through
- Higher dispersion usually means stock selection and factor tilts matter more than pure index direction.
- Use the playbook as a bias check, then size risk around the sector map (leaders vs laggards).
