Market Regime & Volatility Dashboard

The current regime status indicates elevated near-term volatility, with the Nasdaq (QQQ) showing a 100% probability of being in a high volatility state, while the SPY has a 37.6% probability.

The breakdown by regime reveals that QQQ, XLK, XLV, XLY, XLP, XLI, GLD, USO, and SLV are in high volatility states, signaling increased uncertainty. In contrast, IWM, DIA, XLF, XLU, XLC, and TLT are in low volatility states, implying relative stability. Meanwhile, SPY and XLE are transitioning, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.

The regime persistence interpretation based on HMM transition probabilities implies that the current regimes are likely to be sticky, meaning that assets in high volatility states are likely to remain so, and those in low volatility states will likely persist. This has significant implications for positioning, as traders should be prepared for continued elevated volatility in certain assets and relative calm in others.