Crypto DeMark Sentiment Index — 2026-03-04
Crypto Sentiment — 2026-03-04
Current tone: negative
Latest score: 21.6/100
Cross-coin dispersion: 40.4 pts
The current market sentiment is bearish, with certain leaders such as TRON and Cardano outperforming the rest. On the other hand, laggards like Litecoin and Bitcoin are struggling to keep up. Our forward return playbook indicates that the market may be due for a shift. By analyzing the coin map, we can identify areas of strength and weakness, and make informed decisions about which coins to watch. As the market continues to evolve, it's essential to stay informed and adapt to the changing landscape.
Scan the Forward return playbook for context, then the Coin map for leadership and laggards.
Forward return playbook (BTC)
Historical medians and hit ratios from past dates that looked similar to today (same regime + tight score band).
| Horizon | Median BTC | Hit Ratio | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | -4.9% | 31.8% | 44 |
| 3M | -4.3% | 40.9% | 44 |
| 6M | 28.6% | 52.3% | 44 |
Coin map (0=cold, 100=hot)
Leading / Hot
- TRON: 44.3/100
- Cardano: 38.9/100
- Ethereum: 35.4/100
- Polkadot: 32.5/100
Lagging / Cold
- Litecoin: 3.8/100
- Bitcoin: 7.2/100
- Chainlink: 8.2/100
- Toncoin: 9.5/100
Neutral
- XRP: 31.0/100
- Dogecoin: 23.2/100
- Solana: 19.6/100
- Avalanche: 17.6/100
- BNB: 9.6/100
Read-through
- Higher dispersion often means selection matters more than beta.
- Use the playbook as a bias check, then size risk around the coin map (leaders vs laggards).
