Market Wrap 2025-11-18

Core-Brief

18 Nov 2025 — 10 min read

The Department of Labor reported US jobless claims at 232,000 for the week ending October 18th; continuing claims were 1.957 million.
European stock exchanges are all experiencing losses, and US equity futures are showing modest declines.
The USD is fluctuating amid the early release of weekly jobless claims data, while the JPY is reacting to further verbal intervention.
Bonds are benefiting from the risk-averse sentiment, with some price movement observed following the unexpected jobless claims release.
Crude oil and copper prices are declining due to the equity selloff, while gold is rebounding at USD 4,000 per ounce.
Upcoming economic data includes the US ADP Weekly Estimate, US Factory Orders (August), US Durable Goods (August), and the Japanese Trade Balance. Scheduled speakers include the BoE’s Pill and Dhingra, as well as the Fed’s Barr and Barkin.

TRADE/TARIFFS

EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic stated that the EU intends to implement restrictions on EU exports of aluminum scrap.
The German Finance Minister commented on rare earths, stating that Germany needs to address its supply chains and diversify them.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European stock markets (STOXX 600 -1.3%) opened lower across the board, continuing the negative sentiment from Wall Street and overnight trading in the Asia-Pacific region. Indices found support in early morning trading and have remained at those levels.
All European sectors are in negative territory, with a defensive bias. Healthcare is performing best, supported by Roche (+5.6%) due to positive trial results for a breast cancer pill. Autos, Tech, and Basic Resources are under pressure.
US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.2%) are slightly lower, though not as significantly as in Europe. Traders are awaiting NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday, but before that, US data (Durable Goods, Weekly ADP Average Estimate) and remarks from Fed speakers are expected. The unexpected jobless claims release (week ending October 18th) had little impact on contracts.
The EU Commission is launching market investigations into cloud computing services under the Digital Markets Act to determine if Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) should be designated as gatekeepers for their cloud computing services. Two market investigations will assess whether Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure should be designated as gatekeepers under the DMA. A third market investigation will assess if the DMA can effectively tackle practices that may limit competitiveness and fairness in the cloud computing sector in the EU.
Elliott Management has reportedly built a substantial stake in Barrick Mining (B), making them a top 10 shareholder, according to the FT.
Home Depot Inc (HD) reported Q3 2025 results (USD): EPS of 3.62 (expected 3.85) and revenue of 41.35 billion (expected 40.98 billion).
Barclays forecasts a 2026 year-end target for the Stoxx 600 at 620. Sector weightings: Mining upgraded to Overweight, Diversified financials upgraded to Overweight, Transportation downgraded to Underweight, Electricals downgraded to Market Weight, Business services downgraded to Underweight, Chemicals downgraded to Market Weight.

FX

The DXY is currently volatile, trading between 99.39 and 99.60. Initial movement saw the index supported by the risk-off sentiment, with the USD pressured by typical safe-haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, while the Antipodeans underperformed. Subsequently, the risk tone improved slightly, and the Dollar dipped to a session low, coinciding with a surprise US weekly claims release. The weekly claims release is a delayed report for the week ending October 18th, with a print of 232,000, while continuing claims printed at 1.957 million. The ADP will release its weekly US jobs gauge; last week, it reported an average weekly estimate of -11,250. US factory orders are expected to have risen by 1.4% M/M in August (previous -1.3%); durable goods revisions for August are also due. The NAHB's housing market index is expected to remain unchanged at 37 in November. Fed's Barr (voter) and Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) are scheduled to speak, while Fed's Logan (2026 voter) will deliver remarks after the close.
The EUR is currently flat/mildly lower, largely influenced by the Dollar due to a lack of significant European news. Initially flat against the Dollar, it then gained to reach a fresh session high above 1.1600 before reversing. The bid appeared to occur just before the US jobless claims figures. It is currently near lows at 1.1583.
The JPY is also flat against the USD but began the European session slightly firmer, benefiting from the subdued risk tone overnight. This negative sentiment has persisted, with equities remaining firmly in the red, although they have stabilized slightly off their worst levels. Key points for Japan include: 1) a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi, 2) China-Japan tensions, and 3) ongoing verbal intervention.
The GBP is steady against the USD but experienced some two-way movement surrounding the US jobless claims data. It is currently trading between 1.3146 and 1.3176. Focus for the day will be on commentary from BoE's Pill and Dhingra this afternoon, followed by the UK's inflation report on Wednesday. This data is highly anticipated, as BoE Governor Bailey emphasized inflation developments at the most recent meeting. Markets currently assign a 79% chance of a 25bps reduction at the December meeting. Budget-related updates are also relevant for the GBP. The Telegraph reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is considering a last-minute raid on banking profits in the budget, which could be politically favorable but overshadowed by growth-related implications and concerns about the UK’s investment attractiveness.
The Antipodeans initially underperformed against the USD overnight and into the European morning, but this move has since stabilized. The AUD is essentially flat, trading between 0.6466 and 0.6499, while the Kiwi is marginally firmer, trading between 0.5639 and 0.5669.
The PBoC set the USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0856 versus an expected 7.1096 (previous 7.0816).

FIXED INCOME

USTs began the day stronger, supported by the risk tone, and have continued to rise throughout the morning. USTs peaked at 112-19, gaining nine ticks at most, surpassing Monday’s best of 112-24+ but remaining just below a cluster from last week between 113-01+ and 113-04+. The upside this morning was also driven by a surprise release from the Department of Labor, with jobless claims at 232,000 for the week ending October 18th and continuing claims at 1.957 million (previous 1.947 million). There is no direct comparison to the initial claims, as the last release was 219,000 for the week of September 20th. The move in US fixed income assets following the release was relatively muted, potentially due to participants awaiting more timely data and hard data in the coming days and weeks before reassessing their position in December. Upcoming data includes the latest ADP series (not the BLS reference period), other prints, and remarks from Fed’s Barr (voter) and Barkin (2026) on supervision and the economic outlook, respectively.
Bunds are bid, consistent with the above. They rose in early European morning trading before experiencing a slight pullback just after the cash equity open and around the time of the US jobless claims series. This pullback may have been due to cash equity benchmarks opening slightly better than futures had implied or participants being caught off guard by the DOL release. Since then, Bunds have resumed their climb and are near highs of 128.90 as the European tone remains subdued overall and the fixed income complex generally moves higher.
Gilts are also moving alongside peers, currently at the top-end of a 92.41 to 92.60 range. UK-specific data is light today as focus shifts to Wednesday’s CPI release for confirmation that inflation has peaked and early insight into the December meeting. UK specifics remain focused on the budget, and while there have been some relevant updates, primarily related to domestic banking names, nothing has significantly changed the narrative for rates at this point.
The UK sold GBP 1.25 billion of 4.75% 2030 Gilt by tender: bid-to-cover ratio of 3.75x, average yield of 3.896%.
China began marketing a EUR bond sale to raise up to EUR 4 billion; guidance was set at mid-swaps +28bps for the 4-year tranche and mid-swaps +38bps for the 7-year tranche, according to Bloomberg.

COMMODITIES

Crude oil benchmarks initially sold off during the APAC session as risk sentiment continued to sour but have pared back earlier losses at the start of the European session. WTI and Brent dipped to lows of USD 59.28/bbl and USD 63.62/bbl, respectively, before reversing higher to peak at USD 59.73/bbl and USD 64.07/bbl. Benchmarks currently continue to trade towards session highs, to make a fresh peak at USD 59.91/bbl and USD 64.25/bbl, for WTI and Brent respectively.
Spot gold has stabilized above USD 4,000/oz as the metal continues to struggle to act as a traditional safe haven during US equity selloffs. Gold fell throughout the APAC session from the open at USD 4044/oz to a low of USD 4004/oz as the European session got underway. The yellow metal briefly dipped below US 4k/oz to a low of 3998/oz before attracting buyers that took price c. USD 45/oz higher to a high of USD 4042/oz as US data got released.
Base metals have continued to decline, following the broader risk aversion. 3M LME Copper opened at USD 10,760/t and gradually fell approximately USD 100/t to a low of USD 10,660/t. The red metal has managed to find a base at these levels, and currently, 3M LME Copper is trading in a tight approximately USD 70/t band at the lows of the day.
Rio Tinto (RIO AT/RIO LN) reduced production at its Yawun alumina refinery to extend its operational life, with output set to decline by 1.2 million tonnes annually and the refinery’s production to be cut by 40% in 2026, according to Reuters.
Goldman Sachs says as global LNG supply continues to rise faster than Asia demand, estimates that NW European storage will face congestion in 2028/29 which would pressure TTF and JKM low enough to reduce global LNG supply.
Commerzbank expects copper and aluminum to reach USD 12,000/t and USD 3,200/t, respectively, in 2026. Zinc prices are expected to settle around USD 3,000/t, and nickel prices are expected to settle at USD 16,000/t.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

US jobless claims for the week ending October 18th were reported at 232,000 by the DOL; continuing claims were 1.957 million. The previous release was for the week of September 20th, with initial claims at 219,000. The previous release for continuing claims was for the week of October 11th, at 1.947 million.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

The EU Commission stated that the definitive measures imposed consist of country-specific tariff rate quotas per type of ferroalloy, limiting the volume of imports to enter the EU duty-free.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

JPMorgan COO Pinto stated that the US economy is not likely to enter a recession. Regarding AI, he said there is likely to be a "correction" in AI valuations at some point. Upside for the S&P from here is relatively limited.
US President Trump said he wants 1% inflation, according to Bloomberg.
Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales have surged in China, taking a 25% share, according to Bloomberg citing Counterpoint.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

The UN Security Council adopted the US-led resolution establishing an international stabilization force in Gaza, with 13 countries voting in favor while Russia and China abstained, according to Reuters.
Hamas said the UN resolution imposes international trusteeship on Gaza, which is rejected by Palestinians and factions, and that the resolution does not meet Palestinian rights and demands, according to Reuters.
US President Trump said the US will be selling F-35s (LMT) to Saudi Arabia.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

A White House official said President Trump would sign the Russia-sanctions bill if decision-making authority remains, according to Reuters.
The US Treasury said sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are reducing Russian oil revenues and pushing Russian crude prices to multi-year lows, while Treasury OFAC analysis stated the sanctions may have a long-term negative effect on the volume of Russian oil sales.
The Ukrainian military said a Russian missile attack targeted the east of the country, according to Al Arabiya.
Ukraine's President Zelenskiy announces plans to go to Turkey on Wednesday to reinvigorate negotiations

OTHERS

Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa said there are currently no particular changes in China’s export-control measures on rare earths and other products, according to Reuters.
North Korea said South Korea’s nuclear-propelled submarine will lead it to arm itself with nuclear weapons and said it will respond to the confrontational stance of the US–South Korea joint factsheet, via KCNA.
The US Ambassador to Japan posted that the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands, and said nothing the China Coast Guard flotilla does can change that fact, via X.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin briefly slipped below USD 90,000 overnight but has since pared back towards USD 92,000. Ethereum holds around the USD 3,000 mark.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks extended losses throughout the session, following a similar lead from Wall Street, which had seen heavy losses on Monday. Overall newsflow in APAC hours was quiet, although tech stocks were among the laggards in the region.
The ASX 200 showed a clear defensive bias across its sectors, with tech the hardest hit. No obvious reaction was seen to the RBA minutes, which largely emphasized uncertainty and data-dependence.
The Nikkei 225 edged lower after the open and eventually surrendered the 49,000 level, falling as much as 3% intraday. Several additional factors on top of the global risk aversion could've exacerbated losses, including woes surrounding Japan–China relations and the recent JPY and long-end JGB weakness. Several Japanese officials verbally intervened throughout the session but failed to sway the index meaningfully.
The KOSPI lagged as the index joined the global stock rout, following the prior day's outperformance.
The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened in the red and initially conformed to regional losses, with Hong Kong underperforming the Mainland amid its tech exposure.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

BoJ Governor Ueda said he discussed the economy, inflation, and monetary policy with Japanese PM Takaichi. He stated that the BoJ will decide on monetary policy while scrutinizing various data. FX was discussed, but he won't comment on details. He added that it is desirable for FX to move to reflect fundamentals.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she is keeping an eye on markets with regard to fiscal policy and would not comment on FX levels, adding she is alarmed over FX moves. She said currencies should move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, and that the government will thoroughly monitor for excessive or disorderly forex fluctuations with a high sense of urgency. She noted concern over recent one-sided, rapid FX moves and said that while GDP avoided the worst, negative growth justifies a sizeable package, according to Reuters.
Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said long-term rate moves are determined by markets and that the government is watching market moves — including long-term rates — closely, according to Reuters.
The RBA November meeting minutes said it is appropriate in the current environment to remain cautious and data-dependent, with members determined they could remain patient while assessing incoming data on the extent of spare capacity. On rates, the minutes noted a mixed picture on whether policy remains restrictive — in contrast with the clearer signals seen in 2024 — and said the cash rate could be held at its current level if demand recovers more strongly than expected, while policy easing is still seen if the labour market weakens materially or growth disappoints. The Board said it is not possible to be confident about which scenario is more likely. The minutes said there may be a little more underlying inflationary pressure than previously assessed, noted the AUD remains close to equilibrium estimates, and said global growth is likely to slow in H2 2025, though the likelihood of a severe downside scenario has diminished, according to Reuters.
Baidu Inc (BIDU) reported Q3 2025 results (CNY): Adj. EPS of 11.12 (expected 8.16) and revenue of 31.17 billion (expected 30.70 billion).
Xiaomi (1810 HK) reported Q3 2025 results (CNY): Revenue of 113.12 billion (expected 112.5 billion), EV, AI, new initiatives profit of 700 million.