Market Wrap 2025-11-21

Core-Brief

21 Nov 2025 — 11 min read

Sources indicate that China is considering new measures to stimulate its property market, potentially including mortgage subsidies.
Equity futures in both Europe and the US are showing strength, driven by positive sentiment following strong results from NVIDIA (NVDA) and CEO Huang's dismissal of concerns about an "AI bubble."
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining strength ahead of the September Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains unresponsive to further verbal interventions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices are slightly higher, with some upward pressure following the Kremlin's statement that peace talks with the US are not currently taking place. Gold (XAU) is experiencing a slight dip.
Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are underperforming amid stimulus considerations, while US Treasuries (USTs) are bearish as data uncertainty persists.
Upcoming events include: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash (November), US NFP (September), US Jobless Claims (week ending November 15), New Zealand Trade Balance (October), Australian Flash PMIs (November), Japanese Nationwide CPI (October), South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Policy Announcement, speeches from Fed officials Cook, Barr, Hammack, Paulson, Miran, and Goolsbee, and speeches from BoE officials Dhingra and Mann. There will also be supply from the US and earnings reports from Gap and Walmart.

TRADE/TARIFFS

US lawmakers are reportedly considering a bill to codify export restrictions on AI chips to China. The White House has reportedly requested that Congress reject the bill that would curb NVIDIA (NVDA) exports.
The US Commerce Department reportedly plans to approve the export of 70,000 advanced AI chips to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The export deal includes approval for NVIDIA's (NVDA) GB300 or equivalent chips.
China's exports of rare earth magnets to the US increased by 56.1% in October compared to September, according to customs data.
The European Commission will reportedly present a list of sectors it wants to be exempt from US tariffs to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer on Monday, including medical devices, wines, spirits, beers, and pasta.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European stock markets (STOXX 600 +0.7%) opened with gains across the board, boosted by strong earnings from NVIDIA (NVDA). Price action has been relatively sideways at elevated levels as markets await the US NFP report.
European sectors are showing a strong positive bias, with the tech sector leading gains, supported by pre-market gains in NVIDIA (+5%). ASML (+1.4%) and Infineon (+1.5%) are also moving higher.
US equity futures (ES +1.2%, NQ +1.5%, RTY +0.7%) are stronger, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ) outperforming following NVIDIA's results. NVIDIA reported stronger-than-expected revenue and upbeat sales guidance, easing investor concerns about heavy AI spending. Data center sales rose 66%, driven by demand for Blackwell and GB300. NVIDIA noted that cloud GPUs are sold out, and there is strong growth in gaming, visualization, and robotics, but limited sales in China.

NVIDIA Commentary Highlights:

CEO on AI bubble: CEO Huang stated that despite talk of an AI bubble, NVIDIA sees "something different."
CFO on China: NVIDIA will continue to cooperate on China. Sizeable purchase orders for the H20 AI chip did not materialize in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and increased competition in China. Data center compute revenue from China is not expected in Q4.
CEO Comments: NVIDIA has done a good job in planning and supply chains and will continue to do stock buybacks, with more success this year compared to last year.
CFO Comments: NVIDIA is still in early innings, reiterating visibility into USD 500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue. Cloud services are sold out, and demand continues to exceed expectations.

FX

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly firmer, trading between 100.10 and 100.32. The index topped its 200-day moving average at 99.91 in the prior session and has continued to rise to multi-month highs, levels not seen since late May 2025. The upside was facilitated by hawkish FOMC minutes and the BLS announcement that the October and November NFP reports will be delayed until December 16th, leaving the Fed with only today's (September) NFP report. Money markets currently price in a near-25% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting.
The Euro (EUR) is slightly weaker against the Dollar, with a lack of European-specific data to guide the currency. Price action has been largely dictated by the Dollar side of the pair and will ultimately await the NFP report. German Producer Prices data printed roughly in line with expectations and had limited impact on the pair.
USD/JPY has continued its ascent beyond 157.00, topping 157.50 and making a fresh session high of 157.77. The pair has been subject to moves on both sides, with the USD gaining amid hawkish repricing into the December meeting, while the JPY has had domestic factors to digest. Katayama attempted verbal intervention overnight, but to no effect. The pair has cooled from best levels to currently trade at 157.20, but still at the upper end of Wednesday’s confines.
The British Pound (GBP) has seen a quiet session, with little fresh news flow from a Budget perspective. Cable currently resides in a 1.3039 to 1.3076 range. The GBP has been subject to selling pressure over the past month, with losses totaling roughly 3%, amid Budget-related jitters and recent political uncertainty within the Labour party. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
Antipodean currencies are trading mixed, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefiting from the risk tone, while the Australian Dollar (AUD) is flat and conforms to the subdued risk tone in China, impacted by its status in the AI race post-NVIDIA. Base metals are generally softer. No major move was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus. AUD/USD trades within a 0.6472 to 0.6491 range, while NZD/USD trades in a 0.5596 to 0.5614 confine.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0905 vs. expectations of 7.1201 (previous 7.0872).

FIXED INCOME

Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are pressured overnight as Japanese yields continue to climb. JGBs themselves to a 134.56 trough, marking a new contract low. The 10-year yield has risen to a 1.85% peak, taking us back to levels from early 2008. This action has been driven by ongoing speculation and reporting around the upcoming stimulus, with the latest reporting suggesting an outlay of around JPY 17 trillion, exceeding the JPY 13.9 trillion figure from the last package. These updates have pressured JGBs given an expectation for it to necessitate greater issuance than the JPY 6.7 trillion figure outlined last time.
US Treasuries (USTs) are under pressure, but only modestly so. Downside comes given the upbeat risk tone after NVIDIA numbers (see Equities). Additionally, the latest FOMC minutes showed a somewhat divided board but the undertones were hawkish. Potentially more pertinently, the BLS has confirmed the October payrolls release will not print in full (no unemployment rate) while the November series has been delayed until after the December meeting. Factors that are both hawkish/bearish. As the lack of data visibility gives the Fed theoretical scope to wait-and-see how the economy is faring before easing further; reminder, in October, Powell remarked, “when there is fog, you could slow down”. Given all this, USTs are in the red and down to a 112-18 base. Support comes into play at 112-17 from Tuesday before Monday’s 112-15+ WTD low.
Bunds are softer, following the risk tone lower and posting downside of just under 20 ticks at most. Holding around a 128.48 low, if the move continues, we look to 128.25 from early October before the figure and then touted support at 127.88. Specifics for the bloc are somewhat light thus far. No move to ECB’s Makhlouf this morning, remarks that chimed with the market view that the ECB is at a terminal. Interestingly, Makhlouf said he does not think the new projections are likely to change; a remark in reference to the December forecast round which will include the first look at 2028, a period in focus and of particular note for those looking for further ECB easing. Supply from Spain passed without incident, whilst France was a little more mixed. Overall though, no move seen and OATs trade in-line with Bunds as we approach the tail-end of the week where attention returns back to French budget deliberations.
Gilts are marginally outperforming after the underperformance on Wednesday. Underperformance that was seemingly due to concerns around the stability of Labour leadership amid mounting challenges to PM Starmer in the background. A challenge that would be a knock to the relatively, market-favourable pairing of Starmer and Reeves. This morning, Gilts are holding in the green by a handful of ticks. Initially opened lower acknowledging the bearish bias seen in peers but then swiftly pared to post gains of 15 ticks at best. Overall though, the benchmark has settled just above the unchanged mark in a 91.51-85 band. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
Spain sold EUR 4.921 billion vs. expectations of EUR 4.5-5.5 billion of 3.00% 2033, 3.20% 2035, and 4.00% 2054 Bono.
France sold EUR 12 billion vs. expectations of EUR 10-12 billion of 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, 1.50% 2031, and 3.50% 2033 OAT.

COMMODITIES

Crude oil benchmarks have traded subdued to start the European session despite the positive risk tone following NVIDIA earnings and further reporting about the proposed 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. After grinding higher throughout Wednesday's US session, WTI and Brent pulled back to a trough of USD 59.27/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl respectively before extending to session highs of USD 59.80/bbl and USD 64.08/bbl as European traders stepped into the market. Despite the muted trade, benchmarks currently remain near session highs as the European session continues. Some further upside seen following comments via Russia's Kremlin which said that consultations with the US on peace are not taking place, but contacts are.
Spot gold (XAU) sold off at the start of the APAC session and has continued to drift lower following the hawkish FOMC minutes and the bid seen across global equities as NVIDIA posted positive earnings. After a slight bid to a peak of USD 4110/oz at the start of APAC trade, XAU sold off to a trough of USD 4042/oz before consolidating in a USD 4042-4085/oz band. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal briefly extended to a new session low of USD 4039/oz before bouncing back into the earlier band.
Base metals have traded rangebound to start the European session despite the positive global risk tone, outside of China, following NVIDIA earnings. 3M LME Copper started positive and bid higher to a peak of USD 10.83k/t at the start of APAC trade. However, the red metal fell lower and as the European session got underway, copper extended losses to a trough of USD 10.72k/t. Thus far, 3M LME Copper has managed to bounce off worst levels and is currently trading at USD 10.80k/t.
The Offshore Alliance Union has applied to the Australian tribunal for permission to strike at Woodside’s (WDS AT) Pluto 2 LNG project.
BP (BP/ LN) shut the Olympic Pipeline system after a leak in Washington.
According to Bloomberg, "As the busy period for Chinese manufacturing draws to a close, copper consumption has largely disappointed, with run rates at fabricators plumbing multiyear lows for the season."

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

Swiss Trade (October): 4319.0M CHF (previous 4073.0M CHF, revised 3990M CHF); Gold exports 128.2/T, -11%; Watch exports: CHF 2.2 billion, -4.4% Y/Y.
German Producer Prices (October): Month-over-month 0.1% (expected 0.0%, previous -0.1%); Year-over-year -1.8% (expected -1.9%, previous -1.7%).
Norway's preliminary oil production (October): 1.82 million barrels per day (previous 1.82 million barrels per day month-over-month); gas production 10.4 billion cubic meters (previous 8.5 billion cubic meters month-over-month).

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

ECB's Makhlouf said he is comfortable with where policy is and needs further evidence to change his view; outcomes in line with projections, and new projections are unlikely to change. Should be very cautious about reacting to small deviations in projections. Risks around inflation outlook are balanced. Completely relaxed about undershooting next year, inflation will come back.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US President Trump is reportedly considering an executive order to pre-empt state AI laws, according to Reuters, citing a draft.
US President Trump is considering signing an executive order as soon as Friday, according to The Verge.
US President Trump posted that he signed the bill approving the release of the Epstein files, according to Truth Social.
US President Trump is set to meet New York City Mayor Mamdani on Friday at the Oval Office, according to Truth Social.
BoC Deputy Governor Vincent said Canada’s weak productivity problem has become more urgent and is a systemic issue requiring a coordinated, economy-wide approach; he said the country is stuck in a vicious cycle where weak productivity makes it harder to meet challenges, shocks to the economy have become more frequent, and Canada is too vulnerable to their impacts. He added that when assessing inflation, the Bank places particular importance on the relationship between rising labour costs and productivity, according to Reuters.
A UBS (UBSG SW) executive says US inflation is quite sticky, upcoming quarters is probably going to be a little bit challenging from a macro standpoint.
BofA Total Card Spending (week ending November 15th): +1.5% (previous +4.2%, October average +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".

DELAYED DATA UPDATE

The US November jobs report has been rescheduled for December 16th at 08:30 EST/13:30 GMT, with the October NFP to be released alongside November but without an unemployment rate. The BLS said the October 2025 Employment Situation Report has been cancelled, noting the Establishment Survey (NFP) data will be published with November’s release on December 16th, while Household Survey data (unemployment rate) could not be collected, via BLS.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russia said it is ready for dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, via Al Arabiya.
US President Trump reportedly quietly approved a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week, according to NBC.
Russia's Kremlin says consultations or negotiations with the US on peace in Ukraine are not talking place but contacts are, adds that there is nothing to say on if President Putin has been briefed on the peace plan.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades in a USD 92k mark, whilst Ethereum dips and holds around USD 3k.
BlackRock (BLK) is preparing to file for an "iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF", according to CoinDesk

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see something different.”
ASX 200 held near highs, supported by strength in tech and gold sectors.
Nikkei 225 surged at the open and reclaimed 50,000+ levels as NVIDIA boosted tech stocks, though it pulled back from highs amid ongoing US-China tensions and fiscal concerns and as JGB yields continued climbing.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened firmer but lagged peers, with China struggling to capitalise on NVIDIA’s performance amid the US/China AI race. Some modest upside was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus with mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources. Meanwhile, the PBoC held LPRs steady as expected.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to be around JPY 21.3 trillion, according to NHK. The Japanese government is in the final stages of compiling its economic stimulus package worth JPY 21.3 trillion, according to a draft seen by Reuters; the package will total JPY 42.8 trillion, including private-sector investments.
BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ is ready to step into market via increase in bond buying and emergency market operations when long-term yields make rapid moves; want to closely watch how FX volatility could affect prices; no comment on specific long-term rate level; should be set by markets reflecting fundamentals
BoJ Board Member Koeda said the bank must normalise interest rates to avoid causing distortion in the future, adding that she believes underlying inflation is about 2%. She reinforced a data-dependent approach.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is watching market moves, including the bond market, closely and expressed concern about recent sharp, one-sided FX moves. He emphasised that the FX market needs to move stably, reflecting fundamentals, and that the government is watching FX with a high sense of urgency.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won’t comment directly on JGB yield levels, which are determined by various factors, and reaffirmed with BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday that authorities will watch market moves with a strong sense of urgency.
RBA's Hunter said monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the bank will not react to just one month of data; he also noted that the response in the housing market to rate cuts has been a little stronger than expected.
Chinese Loan Prime Rate (LPR) 1Y (November): 3.00% (expected 3.00%, previous 3.00%); 5Y: 3.50% (expected 3.50%, previous 3.50%).
BoJ Governor Ueda is to set to attend a lower house Finance Committee on Friday 21st November, via Reuters citing parliamentary sources.
Chinese Commerce Ministry on Japanese Trade ties says if Japan insists on going down the wrong path then China will take the necessary measures. Says Japan's PM Takaichi remarks have a great impact on bilateral trade cooperation. Tokyo should create favourable environment for economic trade cooperation.
BoJ Ueda to appear at a Financial Times event on the December 9th.