Market Wrap 2025-11-28

• Asia-Pacific equities traded within a narrow range, influenced by the absence of direction from Wall Street due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday and as market participants assessed a large amount of economic data released at the end of the month.
• Trading in foreign exchange, commodities, Treasury securities, and equity futures on the CME Group platform was halted due to an outage. CME stated that the halt was "Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres."
• US President Trump stated that the US will soon begin to stop drug cartels on land in Venezuela.
• S&P indicated that the UK's public finances remain under pressure and that it anticipates ongoing fiscal challenges in the medium term, despite revenue-generating measures announced in the Autumn Budget.
• European equity futures suggest a subdued opening, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after Thursday's cash market close showed little movement.
• Upcoming economic data releases include German Import Prices (October), Retail Sales (October), French GDP Final (Q3), Preliminary HICP (November), Spanish Flash HICP (November), German Preliminary HICP (November), Italian Preliminary HICP (November), Swiss KOF (November), GDP (Q3), German Unemployment (November), Canadian GDP (Q3), a Credit Review for France, and comments from ECB's Nagel.
• The trading desk will operate under normal hours on Friday, November 28th, until 18:15 GMT/13:15 EST, at which point it will close.

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US markets were closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Nexperia issued an open letter to the leadership of its entities in China, stating its continued pursuit of constructive collaboration and its requests for open dialogue to find a path forward. It urged the leadership of its entities in China to take immediate steps towards structured negotiations to address the restoration of the supply chain, but noted that it had not received any meaningful response.
• According to the Financial Times, Indonesia is reportedly resisting attempts by US President Trump to force it to accept a "poison pill" and other coercive clauses in its "reciprocal tariff" trade deal with the US.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump stated that income tax may be cut almost completely due to tariff proceeds.
• US President Trump posted that he will permanently pause migration from all third-world countries to allow the US system to fully recover and will terminate all of the millions of Biden's illegal admissions, while he will end all federal benefits and subsidies to non-citizens.
• According to Axios, US President Trump ordered a review of all green card holders from countries "of concern" following the attack on National Guards in Washington DC.
• CME announced that CME Globex futures and options markets were halted due to technical issues, and Cboe halted trading on C1 due to ongoing issues at CME. CME later announced that markets were halted due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres, while it is working to resolve the outage issue and will advise clients of pre-open details as soon as available.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• Asia-Pacific equities traded within a narrow range, influenced by the absence of direction from Wall Street due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday and as market participants assessed a large amount of economic data released at the end of the month.
• The ASX 200 lacked clear direction, with gains in the technology, mining, and consumer sectors offset by losses in financials, real estate, and telecommunications.
• The Nikkei 225 traded without a clear trend amid a series of data releases. Industrial Production and Retail Sales exceeded forecasts, while Unemployment rose and Tokyo CPI was mostly in line with estimates, except for a stronger-than-expected core reading.
• The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were mixed, with trading confined to relatively tight ranges. China Vanke shares and bonds experienced volatility, initially continuing to decline to a record low for its H shares amid ongoing default concerns, before recovering notably.
• US equity futures showed slight gains (prior to the CME halt), with price action muted following the Thanksgiving holiday lull and CME trading halt.
• European equity futures suggest a subdued opening, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after Thursday's cash market close showed little movement.

FX

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained rangebound following the Thanksgiving Day holiday, with reduced volumes anticipated on Black Friday. There was a lack of new catalysts, although US President Trump commented that income tax may be cut almost completely due to tariff proceeds.
• EUR/USD was uninspired after retreating from the 1.1600 level, with little impact from recent ECB commentary. ECB's Kazaks stated that the time is not right to discuss a rate cut, and the ECB Minutes indicated that all members agreed more information was needed before adjusting rates.
• GBP/USD traded sideways amid quiet news flow, following comments from BoE's Greene that provided little new information. Greene noted encouraging signs regarding wage growth and a decline in services inflation.
• USD/JPY experienced two-way trading amid a series of data releases from Japan. Industrial Production and Retail Sales were better than expected, while the Unemployment Rate rose and Tokyo CPI was mostly in line with estimates, except for the core reading which exceeded forecasts.
• Antipodean currencies lacked conviction amid mixed risk appetite, but held onto gains from earlier in the week.
• The PBoC set the USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0789, compared to expectations of 7.0769 (previous 7.0779).

FIXED INCOME

• 10-year US Treasury futures were uninspired (prior to the CME halt) following the Thanksgiving holiday, with reduced trading hours stateside for Black Friday and amid CME issues.
• Bund futures hovered around the 129.00 level ahead of several German data releases, including Import Prices, Retail Sales, HICP, and Unemployment.
• 10-year JGB futures declined in choppy trading as market participants assessed a series of data releases and a weaker 2-year JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures marginally extended gains from the previous day, following holiday-thinned conditions and reports that OPEC+ is expected to maintain oil output steady for Q1 2026 at its meeting on Sunday. Trading in WTI was halted due to the CME outage.
• Canadian PM Carney stated that a new pipeline to ship oil to Asia is a priority. Carney and the Alberta Premier agreed to eliminate the federal emissions cap on the oil and gas sector and strengthen industrial carbon pricing and carbon storage. It was later reported that the Canadian Identity and Culture Minister resigned from the Cabinet over the disagreement with the Carney government's deal with Alberta.
• Spot gold resumed its gains, along with silver, after breaking out of its mid-week range.
• Copper futures attempted to recover some of the previous day's losses, but the recovery was limited amid a tentative overnight risk tone and the CME stoppage.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded within a narrow range, fluctuating around the USD 91,000 level.
• South Korea suspects that North Korea hacked the crypto exchange Upbit, according to Yonhap.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Unemployment Rate (Oct) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Oct) 1.18 vs. Exp. 1.2 (Prev. 1.2)
• Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Oct P) 1.4% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese Industrial Production YY SA (Oct P) 1.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 2.0%)
• Japanese Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.2%)
• Tokyo CPY YY (Nov) 2.7% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Nov) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Nov) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%)

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukrainian and US delegations will meet this week to work out a formula for peace and security discussed in the Geneva talks.
• A top aide to the Ukrainian President stated that they should not be expected to give up territory as long as Zelensky is President.
• Belgium warned that using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal, according to the Financial Times.

OTHER NEWS

• US President Trump stated that the US will soon begin to stop drug cartels on land in Venezuela.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE's Greene stated that it is encouraging that services inflation is declining, and evidence on wage growth is encouraging. Greene said slack opened up in the labour market and the economy, while she expects slack to increase and said the BoE’s projection is benign. Furthermore, she said inflation has stabilised and her big concern is around second-round effects.
• S&P indicated that the UK's public finances remain under pressure and that it anticipates ongoing fiscal challenges in the medium term, despite revenue-generating measures announced in the Autumn Budget. It added that general government deficits are forecast to moderate through to 2028 and that there are risks to the UK’s fiscal consolidation plan, especially toward the end of the forecast horizon.

DATA RECAP

• UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Nov) 42 vs Exp. 47 (Prev. 50)