Market Wrap 2026-02-11

Core-Brief

11 Feb 2026 — 10 min read

It is being reported that China is considering investigating wine imports from France, potentially imposing anti-dumping duties. Countermeasures against the EU could be implemented if the EU adopts duties.
European stock exchanges are generally declining, with the FTSE 100 performing better due to higher commodity prices. US equity futures show mixed performance.
The DXY is slightly down ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release. The JPY continues to strengthen, and the AUD is supported by RBA's Hauser's statement that inflation is "too high".
Fixed income markets are trading within a narrow range. German Bunds showed little movement following a moderate auction.
Crude oil prices are slightly up amid reports that former President Trump is considering deploying another aircraft carrier near Iran. Gold is rangebound. Base metals are increasing, led by nickel prices after a production cut from the world's largest mine.
Upcoming key events include the US NFP (January), Japanese PPI (January), Bank of Canada (BoC) Minutes (January), and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). Scheduled speakers include the ECB’s Schnabel, and Fed's Schmid, Bowman & Hammack. Supply data from the US is expected. Earnings reports are due from T-Mobile, McDonalds, AppLovin, Equinix, Motorola Solutions, Hilton, and Kraft Heinz.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European stock exchanges (STOXX 600 -0.3%) initially opened with mixed results but are now mostly negative, except for the FTSE 100, which is supported by strength in oil and mining stocks.
Most sectors are showing a negative trend. Energy and Basic Resources are among the top performers, while Technology is lagging.
Notable stock movements include: Siemens Energy (+5%, due to strong Q1 results), Dassault Systemes (-17%, due to poor results and a weak outlook), and Lufthansa (-4%, due to pilot strike threats). Pernod Ricard (+0.5%) experienced slight pressure following reports that China might consider anti-dumping duties on French wine.
US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY +0.2%) are fluctuating around the unchanged level, with cautious trading ahead of the US NFP report. Recent trading activity has seen contracts retreat from their highest levels. Pre-market activity includes: Ford (+1%, projecting stronger profits for 2026), and Robinhood (-7%, Q4 revenue below expectations).
TotalEnergies (TTE FP) reported Q4 results (USD): Adjusted EPS of 1.73 (expected 1.75), Adjusted Net Income of 3.84 billion (expected 3.81 billion), Adjusted EBITDA of 10.07 billion (expected 9.87 billion). The company plans a USD 750 million share buyback in Q1 and confirms its FY26 share buyback guidance of approximately USD 15 billion.
Siemens Energy (ENR GY) reported Q1 results (EUR): Revenue of 9.6 billion (expected 9.83 billion), Profit Before Special Items of 1.16 billion (expected 992.4 million), Orders of 17.61 billion (expected 14.17 billion); and affirmed its guidance.
Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) reported Q4 results (EUR): EPS of 0.33 (expected 0.33), Adjusted EBIT of 622 million (expected 654.6 million), Non-IFRS Revenue of 1.68 billion (expected 1.74 billion), Non-IFRS Revenue excluding FX +1% (expected +3.49%); and projects Q1'26 Revenue excluding FX of 1-5%, EPS of 0.25-0.31 (expected 0.33).
Ford Motor Company (F) reported Q4 2025 results (USD): Adjusted EPS of 0.13 (expected 0.18), Revenue of 45.9 billion (expected 43.60 billion). The company aims to continue building on its foundation to achieve a target of 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. A delay in tariff relief and an additional USD 900 million tariff impact were disclosed.

FX

The DXY is slightly lower and trading near the lower end of its 96.49-96.91 range. The primary focus is on the US NFP report in the afternoon. The January jobs data is expected to show 70,000 nonfarm payrolls added (compared to the previous 50,000; with forecasts ranging from -10,000 to +108,000). The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%. Recent labor metrics suggest a subdued labor market, and comments from White House Economic Adviser Hassett have also lowered expectations for the report. Following his remarks, Bloomberg’s NFP whisper number decreased to 37,000 (from 50,000).
The JPY remains the strongest performer, extending gains following PM Takaichi’s victory. Factors supporting the JPY include: a) potential for faster BoJ normalization, b) reduced obstacles for Japanese officials to intervene, c) significant flows into Japanese equities, and d) FinMin Katayama suggesting that surplus foreign reserves could help fund the food tax suspension. USD/JPY briefly fell below 153.00 and is currently trading within a 152.79-154.51 range, approaching the late January lows (152.09) where rate checks/intervention were rumored.
G10 currencies are generally firmer against the USD. The JPY is outperforming (as mentioned above), followed closely by the AUD. AUD/USD has surpassed 0.70, reaching levels not seen since February 2023. The pair is currently trading around 0.7113, with potential for further upside towards the high from February 2, 2023, at 0.7157. Recent strength is attributed to rising metals prices and comments from RBA’s Hauser, who stated that inflation is too high and the RBA will take necessary actions to bring it back to the target band.
The EUR is slightly firmer, trading around 1.19, below recent highs above 1.2000 in late January. A weak US jobs report could lead to further gains for EUR/USD, potentially prompting ECB doves to advocate for an FX-led rate cut. There was no significant reaction to the ECB Wage Tracker, which increased the 2026 annual estimate to 2.388% (from 2.316%).
The NOK continues to strengthen against the EUR following Tuesday’s higher-than-expected Norwegian inflation data, which led some banks to delay expectations for Spring rate cuts. EUR/NOK is currently at session lows, trading in a 11.2638-11.3300 range.

FIXED INCOME

Benchmarks are contained ahead of the NFP report, which has been delayed. US labor data has been softer, with steady claims, easing continuing claims, weak ADP data, and Revelio reporting job losses. Challenger job cuts were the highest for January since 2009, and JOLTS were at the lowest since September 2020.
USTs are firmer by a tick or two in a thin 112-15 to 112-18 band. Overnight trade was quiet due to Japan's market holiday. Markets are fully pricing in a Fed rate cut in June (-25.2bps implied), with about a 20% chance of a cut in March and approximately 40% in April.
EGBs are similarly firmer, with Bunds up marginally in a 128.60-74 band. ECB speakers are sticking to the established narrative. The latest ECB wage tracker was strong and supports those who believe the next move will be a hike rather than a cut, adding to the hawkish sentiment from global central banks, including the RBA and Norges Bank.
Gilts are contained in a 90.71-90 band. UK-specific news is quieter compared to recent sessions, with a busy data schedule next week. Much of the UK press is focused on Angela Rayner after a "Rayner for leader" website briefly went live in January.
Germany sold EUR 750 million (vs. expected EUR 1 billion) of 2.90% 2056 Bunds and EUR 1.16 billion (vs. expected EUR 1.5 billion) of 2.50% 2054 Bunds.
The UK sold GBP 300 million of 4.25% 2049 Gilts via Tender: bid-to-cover ratio of 4.32x, average yield of 5.256%.
China's Ministry of Finance issued CNY 14 billion of treasury bonds in Hong Kong.
Australia sold AUD 700 million of 3.75% April 2037 bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.14 and an average yield of 4.8342%.
JPMorgan launched a USD 1.5 billion tender offer for EA bonds ahead of USD 20 billion buyout financing, including USD 750 million each of 2031 and 2051 maturities, expiring March 11th.

COMMODITIES

Crude oil benchmarks have steadily increased as the European session progresses. Traders are analyzing a report by Axios, which quoted former President Trump as saying he might send a second carrier to strike Iran if talks fail, overshadowing the larger-than-expected US private inventory build. WTI and Brent rebounded from lows of USD 63.65/bbl and USD 68.49/bbl, respectively, during Tuesday's trading session and fluctuated in a tight range during the APAC session, with WTI approaching USD 65/bbl.
Spot gold remains contained in a USD 4965-5086/oz range ahead of a busy week of US data.
Base metals have been steadily bid higher, with 3M LME Copper reaching USD 13.25k/t. The move appears to be driven by nickel prices. Weda Bay, the world's largest nickel mine, has been instructed by Indonesian authorities to cut its output by 70% to boost global prices. LME nickel futures prices rose following the report, from USD 17.75k/t to USD 17.95k/t, but have since pared back slightly.
Indian state-owned refiners are considering buying more US and Venezuelan crude after the trade deal with the US, according to Bloomberg.
SHFE is adjusting the automatic conversion standard for hedging position limits in silver futures, starting from the last trading day of February 2026.
Russia is expected to complete building two ice-class LNG tankers in 2026, according to IFX.
Weda Bay, the world's biggest nickel mine in Indonesia, has been told to slash output by 70% to 12 million tonnes, according to Bloomberg.
Syria is tapping energy majors to explore for trillions of cubic meters of gas, with the state oil chief noting that Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), TotalEnergies (TTE FP), and Eni (ENI IM) are interested in exploration, according to the FT.
US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +13.4 million (expected +0.8 million), Distillates -2.0 million (expected -1.3 million), Gasoline +3.3 million (expected -0.4 million), Cushing +1.4 million.
The US issued a Venezuela-related license authorizing certain transactions necessary for port and airport operations, also authorizing certain activities involving Venezuelan-origin oil.
Wells Fargo raised its 2026 gold target to USD 6,100-6,300/oz, citing geopolitical risks, market volatility, and strong central-bank demand.

TRADE/TARIFFS

China is reportedly considering investigating wine imports from France, potentially imposing anti-dumping duties. Countermeasures against the EU could be implemented if the EU adopts duties.
China plans to extend import VAT breaks on cancer and rare disease drugs until the end of 2027.
The White House revised its Fact Sheet on the US-India trade deal, removing reference to pulses and changing the wording around India's proposed USD 500 billion purchase from a firm "commitment" to an "intent".
US House Speaker Johnson failed in an effort to block votes on measures to rescind Trump’s tariff policies, according to CNN's Manu Raju.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that US-China ties are stable but competitive, aiming for fair competition and de-risking, not decoupling, while adding that China must rebalance amid a persistent USD 1 trillion trade imbalance.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

EU's von der Leyen stated that the EU needs one large, deep, and liquid capital market, adding that it is currently too fragmented. Completing their single market also means completing their energy union, which is crucial for lowering prices further.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

Italian Industrial Production YoY (Dec) Y/Y 3.2% (Previous 1.4%).
Italian Industrial Production MoM (Dec) M/M -0.4% vs. Expected -0.5% (Previous 1.5%).

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB Wage Tracker: 2026 Annual 2.388% (previous 2.316%).
ECB’s Makhlouf stated that uncertainty means the ECB should take a meeting-by-meeting approach.
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser stated that Australia's economy is not just 'dig it and ship it', many parts of the economy are doing quite well, adding that inflation is too high, which they can't let persist, and the RBA will do what is needed to return it to the band.
Westpac anticipates the RBNZ hiking rates more quickly in 2027.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Negotiations between US Democrats and the White House are ongoing, but a deal on a stopgap funding measure seems unlikely, according to Punchbowl.
Former US President Trump stated that US employment numbers are really good and remain good after government job cuts.
Former US President Trump stated that the US should have the lowest interest rates in the world.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

The Russian Kremlin stated that the US has prohibited Russia and China from dealing with Venezuelan oil and is looking to discuss the restriction with the US.
Russia is expected to complete building two ice-class LNG tankers in 2026, according to IFX.
Ukrainian President Zelensky plans spring elections alongside a referendum on the peace deal after a US push, according to the FT.

MIDDLE EAST

An advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iranian negotiators have no authority to discuss missiles.
Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that the date for the next round of US negotiations has not been set.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that they are ready to negotiate on the percentage of uranium enrichment and the size of its enriched stockpile.
Iran's President stated that the country is not seeking nuclear weapons and is ready for any kind of verification.
Former US President Trump stated that Iran wants to make a deal and it would be foolish if they didn't.

OTHERS

Australia charged two Chinese nationals with foreign interference.
Taiwan's President Lai stated that Indo-Pacific nations are raising defense budgets and Taiwan must do the same, while thanking the US for its support of Taiwan's defense.
The UK is expanding settlement visas for Hong Kongers following Jimmy Lai's sentence.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin slipped below USD 67,000, and Ethereum returned below USD 2,000.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded higher, but gains were capped after a weak handover from the US and with the NFP report on the horizon. Participants also digested earnings and data in thinned conditions, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday.
The ASX 200 outperformed, led higher by the top-weighted financial sector after shares in Australia's largest lender and company by market cap, CBA, rallied following a 5% increase in H1 profits.
The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were supported by the PBoC's liquidity operations and recent pledge to continue implementing an appropriately loose monetary policy in its quarterly implementation report. However, upside was limited as participants reflected on mixed Chinese inflation data, with CPI softer than expected and PPI slightly better than feared but remaining in deflationary territory.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 China PPI forecast to -0.5% Y/Y.
ByteDance reportedly plans to produce 100,000-300,000 units of AI chips this year and is in talks with Samsung (005930 KS) to manufacture it.
Tencent Cloud (0700 HK) is partnering with Tesla (TSLA) to upgrade its cockpit experience.
NetEase (9999 HK / NTES) reported Q4 results (USD): EPS of 1.58 (expected 2.03), Revenue of 3.90 billion (expected 4.10 billion).

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP