Market Wrap 2026-02-16

Core-Brief

16 Feb 2026 — 10 min read

According to the FT, US President Trump is considering reversing tariffs on metal and aluminum products.
European stock markets are showing resilience despite the sell-off in US markets. Technology stocks are recovering, while Basic Resources are underperforming. US equity futures are stable.
The DXY is slightly stronger, and US Treasury yields are range-bound as the market awaits the US CPI data. The Japanese Yen is weaker compared to other currencies.
Precious metals are rebounding after a decline on Thursday, while Copper is lagging due to weaker risk appetite. Crude oil prices are relatively unchanged.
Upcoming events include the US CPI release for January, speeches from ECBʼs de Guindos and BoEʼs Pill, and earnings reports from Moderna.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European stock exchanges (STOXX 600 -0.1%) are exhibiting mixed performance as the week comes to a close. The SMI (+0.6%) is outperforming other European markets, closely followed by the AEX (+0.5%). Conversely, the CAC 40 (-0.2%) is slightly underperforming, influenced by mixed earnings results from French companies.
European sectors are displaying mixed results. Technology (+1.3%) is the top-performing sector, followed by Insurance (+0.6%) and Industrial Goods and Services (+0.5%). The gains in Technology are attributed to positive earnings and Q2 forecasts from Applied Materials. Basic Resources (-1.3%) is the weakest sector, as mining companies react to the decline in metal prices. Consumer Products and Services (-0.7%) is being weighed down by L'Oreal (-3.5%) following its earnings release.
US equity futures (NQ +0.1%, ES & RTY U/C) are steady after Thursday's sell-off, which was triggered by renewed concerns about AI disruption, particularly in the logistics sector (CH Robinson Worldwide -14.5% at market close). Markets are awaiting the US CPI data.
NatWest (NWG LN) reported Q4 results (in GBP): Pretax Profit 1.94bln (expected 1.72bln), Revenue 4.32bln (previous 3.83bln Y/Y), NII 3.44bln (expected 3.33bln); the company intends to initiate a GBP 750mln share buyback program in H1'26.
Capgemini (CAP FP) reported FY 2025 results (in EUR): Revenue 22.5bln (previous 22.1bln Y/Y), Operating profit 2.2bln (previous 2.4bln Y/Y); the company's initial FY26 guidance is 6.5-8.5%.
Safran (SAF FP) reported FY25 results (in EUR): Revenue 31.3bln (previous 27.3bln Y/Y), Operating profit 4.72bln (previous 4.13bln Y/Y); the company expects FY26 revenue to be higher in the low to mid-teens and operating income between 6.1-6.2bln.
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) reported Q1 2026 results (in USD): Adj. EPS 2.38 (expected 2.21), Revenue 7.01bln (expected 6.87bln), Adj. net income 1.9bln (expected 1.75bln). Guidance: Q2 revenue 7.15-8.15bln (expected 7bln). Q2 adj. EPS 2.44-2.84 (expected 2.28).

FX

The DXY is trading with slight gains, around the midpoint of a 96.89-97.15 range. The index is relatively stable as traders await the US CPI report. The headline CPI is expected to increase by +0.3% M/M (previous 0.3%), and the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% M/M (previous 0.2%). UBS suggests that easing inflation should keep the Fed on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, forecasting two 25bps reductions in June and September, while FOMC projections indicate one additional cut this year. ING notes a strong inclination to sell USD rallies this week, suggesting analysts "struggle to see the dollar recover substantially from here."
G10 currencies are mixed against the USD. The NZD and CAD are holding near unchanged levels, while the CHF, AUD, and JPY are weaker, with the JPY being the clear underperformer. The EUR saw little movement following the release of the EZ GDP 2nd estimates and Employment change, which were largely in line with expectations.
The JPY is relatively stable, with its weakness potentially reflecting a slight paring of a four-day winning streak following PM Takaichi’s victory. Focus has been on Takaichi’s remarks about adhering to fiscal responsibility, as well as comments from FinMin Katayama, who suggested that a foodstuff tax cut could be funded by foreign reserves. Markets anticipate faster BoJ normalization, with BoJ’s Tamura (Hawk) suggesting inflation is becoming “sticky” and flagging the possibility of a rate hike “this spring.” He also suggested that the policy rate is “very distant” from the neutral rate. USD/JPY was little moved by his comments and is currently trading at the upper end of a 152.63-153.66 range.
The CHF is slightly lower following the release of Swiss inflation data. The Y/Y metric was in line with consensus, while the M/M metric was slightly below the prior reading and surprisingly fell into negative territory. The CHF initially weakened on the report before recovering much of the pressure. SNB’s Schlegel has suggested that the Bank is willing to “look through negative months of inflation,” adding that the bar for negative rates is high.

FIXED INCOME

Fixed income markets are showing limited movement ahead of the US CPI release and Monday's US holiday, which coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday period.
US Treasuries are slightly weaker as the market awaits the US CPI data. They are currently trading at the low end of a 112-21 to 112-28 band, with the upper end of that band representing a new marginal week-to-date peak.
Bunds are also contained, with the benchmark slightly firmer but off best in 128.93 to 129.12 confines. The firmer APAC bias came from gains towards the end of the European day after German Chancellor Merz said he is not in favor of joint eurobonds, in addition to the read-across from a strong US 30yr auction.
Gilts opened higher by nine ticks, catching up to the strength seen on that US auction. Since, the benchmark has retreated into the red with losses of c. five ticks in 91.34 to 91.51 parameters. Ahead of US CPI today but, more pertinently for the UK, next week's packed data docket that will likely determine if the BoE cuts in April as markets currently forecast, or if March comes into consideration.
JGBs came under pressure to a 131.52 low after BoJ's Tamura said even if they tighten, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
Japan sold JPY 649.5bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 2.95 vs. Prev. 2.58. Highest accepted spread -0.014% vs. Prev. +0.018%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 2.5490% vs. Prev. 86.2119%.
PBoC is to issue CNY 30bln in 3-month and 1-year bills in Hong Kong.
Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.50% May 2034 bonds, b/c 3.44, avg. yield 4.2898%.

COMMODITIES

Crude oil benchmarks are trading relatively flat following yesterday’s decline, which was driven by dollar strength and weak risk sentiment sparked by AI disruption concerns. Comments from US President Trump that the US must make a deal with Iran and that they could reach a deal over the next month added to further downside pressure. There are no significant new catalysts in the European session as traders await US CPI. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower end range of USD 62.54-63.17/bbl and USD 67.22-67.89/bbl, respectively.
Precious metals are rebounding after yesterday’s decline, which was driven by a stronger US dollar following strong jobs data surpassing market expectation. There is no fresh catalyst behind today’s recovery, though some analysts attribute the move to dip-buying after the recent sell-off. Spot gold is currently trading near the upper end of USD 4,885.89–4,997.53/oz range, while silver is holding at the upper range of USD 73.745–79.085/oz.
Copper is trading slightly lower due to downbeat sentiment in Wall Street and APAC, although Europe is performing somewhat better. The red metal is trading at the lower end range of 12,800-13,021/t. Other relevant news in the metal space includes the Shanghai Weekly updating their Warehouse changes before the Chinese holiday: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
Indonesia's Mining Minister said they are studying a plan to ban exports on a number of raw materials next year, including tin.
India's Reliance has reportedly been awarded general authorization from the US to buy Venezuelan Oil.
Three people were reportedly burnt at Exxon's (XOM) Beaumont facility.
Shanghai Weekly Warehouse Changes: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
ANZ revises its gold price forecast, now expecting gold to reach USD 5,800/oz in Q2, compared to the previous forecast of USD 5,400/oz.
Qatar has increased its April term price for Al Shaheen oil to USD 0.87/bbl over Dubai quotes, according to sources.
Shenzhen financial regulator issues public notice to further standardize gold market operations.

TRADE/TARIFFS

China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
China's Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable with German firms, expressing hope that German companies can increase investment in China.
According to the FT, US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminum goods.
Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
Taiwan President Lai said a trade deal with the US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adding that they secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
The US Department of Commerce is increasing duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
The US and Taiwan signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while the US confirms a 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
The US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose a 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

According to the FT, UK PM Starmer is set to call for a multinational defense initiative to cut the costs of rearmament.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

EU Employment Change QoQ Prel (Q4) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%, Low. 0.0%, High. 0.2%).
EU Employment Change YoY Prel (Q4) Y/Y 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%, Low. 0.4%, High. 0.7%).
EU Balance of Trade (Dec) 12.6 (Prev. 9.3, Rev. From 9.9).
EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q4) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.3%, High. 0.3%).
EU GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (Q4) Y/Y 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.4%, Low. 1.3%, High. 1.3%).
Spanish Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jan) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%).
Spanish Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jan) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.9%).
Spanish Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jan) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.3%).
Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. 0.0%, High. 0.1%).
Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. From 0%, Low. -0.1%, High. 0.0%).
German Wholesale Prices MoM (Jan) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.2%).
German Wholesale Prices YoY (Jan) Y/Y 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%).

CENTRAL BANKS

Fed's Miran (voter) said some of the concern he has on labour markets is a little less than he had before, adds a range of policies are pushing out the supply of the economy and will increase economic growth in a non-inflationary way. said:. Fed is one of the biggest risks to growth. Monetary policy has passively tightened. We may be underestimating how restrictive monetary policy actually is.
BoJ's Tamura said he feels Japan's recent inflation is becoming sticky and reiterates will keep raising rates if outlook is met, adds we may be able to judge that BoJ's price goal has been achieved as early as this spring. Added that even if the BoJ raises the policy rate further, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
Japan's PM Takaichi is to meet with BoJ Governor Ueda on February 16th at 17:00JST / 08:00GMT.
Japanese PM Takaichi's advisor Honda suggests the BoJ may consider raising interest rates later this year, but noted the unlikelihood of a hike in March.
ECB's Kazaks said the ECB has yet to see full impact of EUR appreciation; he worries strong EUR reflects dollar weakness; said now is not the time for ECB to move interest rates; said ECB officials are on monitoring mode on EUR strength.
PBoC's new emphasis on overnight money market rate has reportedly sparked speculation it could become the main policy target.
Riksbank's Jansson said January inflation confirmed the picture of downside risks to inflation. Figures for GDP and consumption have been a little weaker recently.
Russian Federation Interest Rate Decision 15.50% vs. Exp. 16% (Prev. 16.00%).

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Tech and banking trade groups are among others that are urging the Trump administration to not change the federal framework they have been using to safely deploy AI, Axios reported citing a letter.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russia's Kremlin said that new round of peace talks with Ukraine will take place next week; adds that its unlikely that discussions will move beyond talks before the conflict in Ukraine is settled.
According to POLITICO, the US, Russia, and Ukraine are planning to meet again next week, possibly in Miami or Abu Dhabi.

MIDDLE EAST

According to officials cited by the NYT, the US aircraft carrier U.S.S Gerald R. Ford will be sent to the Middle East from Venezuela.

OTHERS

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Russia will provide Cuba with material assistance, TASS reported.
Russia's Kremlin said they did not decide to stop using the dollar but that the US imposed restrictions, dollar will have to compete with other currencies if the US lifts restrictions.
According to Japanese press, Japan seized a Chinese fishing boat off the Nagasaki coast.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is nearing USD 67,000, while Ethereum is rebounding from Thursday's USD 1,900 low.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly lower, taking their cue from losses in the US, where tech underperformed due to renewed AI-disruption concerns, and logistics/industrials stocks were also pressured after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) released its AI freight scaling tool.
The ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in tech stocks, as participants also digested earnings releases.
The Nikkei 225 retreated at the open after recent currency strength and with focus also on earnings reports, including from SoftBank, which returned to profit in Q3 but missed expectations, while its shares were also not helped by its AI exposure.
The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered alongside the broad downbeat mood in the region, despite reports that President Trump paused some China tech bans ahead of his summit with Xi in April. It is also the last trading day in the mainland before the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival holiday closures.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Chinese New Yuan Loans (Jan) 4710B vs. Exp. 5000B (Prev. 910B).
Chinese M2 Money Supply YoY (Jan) Y/Y 9% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.5%).
Chinese Total Social Financing (Jan) 7220B vs. Exp. 7050B (Prev. 2210B).
Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (Jan) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.4%).
Chinese House Price Index MM (Jan) Y/Y -0.4% (Prev. -0.4%).
Chinese House Price Index YoY (Jan) Y/Y -3.1% (Prev. -2.7%).
New Zealand 1yr Inflation Expectation (Q1) 2.6% (Prev. 2.4%).
New Zealand 2yr Inflation Expectation (Q1) 2.4% (Prev. 2.6%).
Japanese Stock Investment by Foreigners (Feb/07) 543.2B (Prev. 494.6B).
Japanese Foreign Bond Investment (Feb/07) -365.7B (Prev. 713.7B, Rev. From 713.7B).