Market Wrap 2026-02-17

Core-Brief

17 Feb 2026 — 9 min read

Discussions between the US and Iran are ongoing, with Al Jazeera, citing Iranian TV, reporting that nuclear negotiations have progressed to addressing technical aspects.
Al Hadath reports that Iran's ambassador in Cairo stated Iran's willingness to decrease uranium enrichment, while also noting that "The contradiction of the US statements is proof of its lack of seriousness in the negotiations."
European equities are generally positive, although Basic Resources is under pressure due to lower metals prices. US equity futures are declining as US traders return after a holiday.
The Japanese Yen is strengthening due to yield differentials and some safe-haven demand, while the British Pound is weaker following the UK jobs report. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is unchanged.
Gilts and JGBs are leading gains in fixed income. Current pricing suggests a likely Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in April, with the possibility of a March cut increasing slightly following the unemployment/wages data and ahead of Wednesday's CPI release. US Treasuries are bid alongside global benchmarks.
WTI and Brent crude oil prices are trading within a narrow range, with geopolitical factors being a key focus.
Upcoming events include the US ADP Weekly report, NY Fed (Feb), Canadian CPI (Jan), Japanese Balance of Trade (Jan), and continued US-Iran talks. Scheduled speakers include Fed officials Barr and Daly. Earnings reports are expected from Medtronic, Leidos, Palo Alto, Cadence Design Systems, Republic Services, Vulcan Materials, and Kenvue.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European stock markets (STOXX 600 +0.2%) initially declined but have since recovered and are now mostly positive. The SMI (+0.7%) is leading gains, while the AEX (+0.2%) is lagging, weighed down by losses in ASML (-1.3%). The FTSE 100 (+0.5%) is among the top performers, supported by weaker-than-expected jobs and wages data, which increases the likelihood of BoE rate cuts.
Most European sectors are performing well. Utilities (+1.3%) and Insurance (+1.2%) are near the top, with insurance stocks boosted by a broker upgrade for AXA (+1.8%, initiated with outperform at RBC) and a sector perform rating for Allianz. Basic Resources (-1.4%) is the weakest sector, impacted by lower metal prices (XAU -1.3%, XAG -2.4%).
US equity futures (ES/RTY -0.3%, NQ -0.7%) are all in negative territory as US traders return from the holiday.
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reported FY25 results (USD): Revenue 8.62bln (exp. 8.50bln), EBITDA 5.20bln (exp. 5.15bln), Pretax profit 3.16bln (exp. 3.19bln), EBITDA margin 60.3% (exp. 61.2%), Dividend/shr 64.6c (prev. 31.4c Y/Y), Recommended final dividend of 48.0c.
BHP (BHP AT) reported H1 results (USD): net rose 28% Y/Y to 5.64bln, underlying profit rose 22% Y/Y to 6.2bln (exp. 6.03bln), rev. rose 11% Y/Y to 27.9bln, Co. will pay interim dividend of USD 0.73/shr, inks silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals.

FX

The DXY is trading flat intraday, remaining within a narrow range of 97.072-97.247 as US traders return. Focus is on geopolitics, with US-Iran talks expected to continue and US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks now scheduled for tomorrow. The economic calendar includes weekly ADP jobs data.
The Japanese Yen strengthened as risk sentiment in Japan declined and following comments from former BoJ board member Adachi, who anticipates a 25bps rate hike by the BoJ in April. The JPY remains the strongest performer during European hours as US yields decrease, but the pair remains within the ranges of the last four trading sessions, between 152.70 and 153.75. The JPY may also be experiencing some safe-haven flows due to the US-Iran talks.
The British Pound weakened following a dovish jobs report: unemployment unexpectedly increased to 5.2%, slightly below the BoE’s 5.3% peak forecast, while wage growth slowed across both measures. GBP/USD has recovered from its lows and is currently trading around the middle of a 1.3552-1.3633 intraday range.
The Euro marginally declined, remaining within a tight range near 1.1850 amid limited news flow and mixed EU Industrial Production data. Risk for the EUR decreased as the US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral meeting was postponed to tomorrow. A slight dip was observed as the German ZEW disappointed, with EUR/USD currently in a 1.1828-1.1852 range.

FIXED INCOME

US Treasuries are moving higher, trading within a 113-03 to 113-14 range. The 10-year yield is approaching 4% (currently 4.025%), trading at lows not seen since late Nov’25. The upside is attributed to the muted risk tone and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran and US-Ukraine-Russia talks. While there is a chance of a US strike on Iran if talks fail, analysts believe the most likely outcome is continued discussions.
Bunds are following the global fixed income complex higher. In reaction to the UK’s jobs/wages data, Bunds rose from 129.30 to 129.41. Currently trading higher and at the upper end of a 129.13 to 129.36 range, the 10-year yield is trading around 2.733%. Further pressure could see the 10-year test 2.70%, the trough from December 1, 2025. Demand for German debt remains tepid, with the 2-year Schatz demand sub-2x b/c.
Gilts gapped higher by 38 ticks before climbing another two to a 92.32 peak, in reaction to the latest unemployment and wage data. If the move continues, resistance comes into view at 92.51, 92.56 and 92.95. Upside spurred in a dovish reaction to a report that showed a further deterioration in the labour market, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% and is just a tenth shy of the BoE's 5.3% peak forecast. Furthermore, wage data showed a moderation from the prior for both metrics and markedly so for the measure incl. bonuses. Sparking a dovish reaction in BoE pricing, however, the next cut remains priced for April, but March is now up to -21bps (-20.3bps pre-release) while the timing for a second 2026 cut has been brought forward to November from December.
JGBs are firmer, with upside of just over 50 ticks at best, hitting a 132.60 peak. Upside was a function of the negative risk tone in Japan overnight, where conditions were very limited due to numerous APAC closures. Furthermore, participants continue to digest the policy implications of recent weak GDP data. There was fleeting JGB pressure to a broadly in-line 5yr auction.
Germany sold EUR 4.59bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.10% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.77x (prev. 2.1x), average yield 2.02% (prev. 2.14%), retention 23.5% (prev. 22.8%).
UK sold GBP 500mln 0.125% 2028 Gilt via Tender: b/c 4.05x (prev. 3.77x), average yield 3.336% (prev. 3.443%), tail 0.7bps (prev. 0.6bps).
Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.10x (prev. 3.08x), average yield 1.640% (prev. 1.639%).

COMMODITIES

WTI Mar'26 and Brent Apr'26 are trading around the lower range of USD 62.84-63.87/bbl and USD 67.85-68.62/bbl, respectively. Focus for oil traders is on meetings between the US and Iran and the trilateral talks between Russia, US and Ukraine. At the time of writing, the trilateral talks have concluded, with talks set to resume tomorrow. Much of the action this morning has been spurred by Iran-related commentary; some pressure in the complex on reports that Iran approved IAEA visit to nuclear facilities , but soon reversed after hawkish commentary from Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, who suggested that the US army needs to be "slapped" so hard it cannot get up . Most recently, reports suggest that Iran announced its readiness to reduce uranium enrichment, and are now at the stage of discussing technical issues. Ultimately, very choppy action given the mixed newsflow.
Precious metals have stalled following prior day gains, with the yellow metal slipping below the USD 5,000/oz mark and silver falling by 4.5%, though off worst levels seen during the APAC session. Analysts note that liquidity remains thin, particularly across metals. Focus now turns to US ADP employment figures, which could trigger volatility. Weaker jobs data could trigger a weaker USD, spurring the yellow metal and vice versa.
Copper prices remain subdued , largely amid the mixed global risk tone and the closure of the Chinese market due to the Chinese holiday. 3M LME Copper currently trades in a narrow range of USD 12,695.08-12,849k/t.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce increased its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 0.7% to 1.0%.
The Swedish Finance Minister stated that they do not anticipate joining the Euro in the coming years.
The UK government reportedly shelved a program to build a frictionless post-Brexit trade border, after spending GBP 110mln on a contract with Deloitte and IBM for the project.
EU officials held a constructive meeting to strengthen the international role of the euro on Monday.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb) 58.3 vs. Exp. 65 (Prev. 59.6, Low. 59, High. 74.3).
German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) -65.9 vs. Exp. -65.7 (Prev. -72.7, Low. -71.1, High. -65).
EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb) 39.4 vs. Exp. 45.2 (Prev. 40.8).
UK Labour Productivity QoQ (Q4) Q/Q -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. From 0.7%).
UK Employment Change (Dec) 52K (Prev. 82K).
UK Unemployment Rate (Dec) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.1%, Low. 5.1%, High. 5.2%).
UK Claimant Count Change (Jan) 28.6K vs. Exp. 22.8K (Prev. 2.7K, Rev. From 17.9K).
UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Jan) -11K (Prev. -6K, Rev. From -43K).
UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Dec) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.4%, Rev. From 4.5%, Low. 4.2%, High. 4.6%).
UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Dec) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.6%, Rev. From 4.7%, Low. 4.4%, High. 4.8%).
German Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jan) M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.1%).
German Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jan) Y/Y 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 1.8%, Low. 2.1%, High. 2.1%).

CENTRAL BANKS

RBA Minutes from February meeting stated that members agreed that prevailing uncertainties meant it was not possible to have a high degree of confidence in any particular path for the cash rate. Board concluded inflation would stay stubbornly high if it had not hiked interest rates as it did this month. Members agreed that the data received since the previous meeting had strengthened their concern that without a policy response, inflation would remain persistently above target for too long.
NBP Member Dabrowski says April would be safer to cut rates than in March, a policy rate of 3.5% in 2026 is achievable.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Spanish PM Sanchez said the Council of Ministers will invoke Article 8 to ask the Public Prosecutor to investigate Meta (META), X and TikTok.
EU privacy watchdog opens probe into X over sexualised AI images, according to FT.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

The Kremlin stated that three-way talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine in Geneva will continue tomorrow, with no news expected today.
The Russian Defence Ministry reported that Russia conducted a massive strike on military targets in Ukraine.
An advisor to Russian President Putin, Patrushev, stated that Russia is preparing measures to respond to seizures of its trading vessels.
Ukrainian long-range drones reportedly struck the Ilsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar Krai region of Russia, causing a fire.

MIDDLE EAST

Al Jazeera reports, citing the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, that Iran is prepared to remain in Geneva for days or weeks to reach an agreement.
Al Jazeera, citing Iranian TV, reports that US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva have entered the stage of discussing technical issues.
Al Hadath reports that Iran's ambassador in Cairo announced Iran's readiness to reduce uranium enrichment, adding that "The contradiction of the US statements is proof of its lack of seriousness in the negotiations."
Iran's IRGC is reportedly conducting military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman concurrently with US-Iran nuclear talks.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated, in relation to the US, "The strongest army in the world may sometimes be slapped so hard that it cannot get up."
Indirect talks between the US and Iran have reportedly begun with a message exchange process.
A Senior Iranian Official said Iran's approach to US talks are positive and serious, but holds no preconception about the outcome.
Al Arabiya reported that "Iran approves IAEA visit to nuclear facilities".
An aide to the Russian President stated that Russia, Iran, and China sent ships to the Strait of Hormuz to participate in the "Security Belt 2026" exercise.
US officials reportedly expect Iran to come to Geneva talks today with concrete concessions regarding its nuclear program.
US President Trump said he will be involved in the Iran talks indirectly and that Iran wants to make a deal. Iran are bad negotiators and he hopes they will be more reasonable in talks.
A US delegation led by Special Envoy Witkoff leaves for Geneva for talks with Iran.
Palestinian media reported Israeli army conducts bombing operations in deployment areas within Beit Lahiyah and the Northern Gaza Strip.

OTHERS

US President Trump said Secretary of State Rubio is talking to Cuba right now and that they want to make a deal, adds will see how it all turns out with Cuba and the US talking.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is hovering around USD 68,000, while Ethereum is struggling to remain above USD 2,000.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mixed amid extremely thin conditions due to the Lunar New Year holiday and the absence of a lead from the US, where markets were closed for Washington's Birthday/Presidents' Day.
The ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in miners as BHP shares surged after the mining giant reported a 28% jump in H1 net, although gains in the broader market were capped by weakness in tech and real estate.
The Nikkei 225 retreated shortly after the open with SoftBank and heavy industry stocks leading the declines, as the post-election euphoria petered out following the recent underwhelming GDP data.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Japanese PM Takaichi to unveil a sweeping budgeting reform, placing strategic investments under a ringfenced multi-year framework to enhance predictability and attract private capital.
Japan PM Takaichi considers multi-year budget for growth and crisis management.
Japanese Finance Ministry estimate indicates annual bond issuance could rise 28% three years from now amid increasing debt financing costs.
An Indian Government Minister said they are discussing age-based social media ban with firms.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP