S&P 500 Sector Sentiment — 2026-01-16
S&P 500 Sector Sentiment — 2026-01-16
Current tone: neutral
Latest score: 39.0/100
Cross-sector dispersion: 61.6 pts
In today's market update: S&P 500 sector sentiment is at a neutral tone. Leading sectors include Materials and Industrials, while Consumer Staples and Technology are trailing. For those looking to understand the forward return playbook or explore the sector map, this newsletter provides valuable insights into how different industries perform relative to each other. Stay tuned for more updates on upcoming trends and strategies in the financial world.
Forward return playbook (SPX)
Historical medians and hit ratios from past dates that looked similar to today (conditional on the sentiment regime + a tight score band).
| Horizon | Median SPX | Hit Ratio | N |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1M | 1.0% | 61.4% | 267 |
| 3M | 1.3% | 61.4% | 267 |
| 6M | 0.3% | 53.2% | 267 |
| 12M | 3.4% | 62.9% | 267 |
Sector map (0=cold, 100=hot)
Leading / Hot
- Materials: 73.6/100
- Industrials: 71.0/100
- Real Estate: 69.4/100
Lagging / Cold
- Consumer Staples: 12.0/100
- Technology: 13.1/100
- Utilities: 15.9/100
Neutral
- Comm. Services: 42.5/100
- Health Care: 36.1/100
- Financials: 32.8/100
- Consumer Disc.: 23.8/100
Read-through
- Higher dispersion usually means stock selection and factor tilts matter more than pure index direction.
- Use the playbook as a bias check, then size risk around the sector map (leaders vs laggards).
