Market Wrap 2026-03-09

Market Wrap 2026-03-09

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Today's US Market Wrap — Key Points

• Equities, Treasuries, gold up; crude oil, USD down.
• Geopolitical tensions & potential oil reserve release impacted markets.
• Former US President's comments triggered market reversal.
• Key data releases & earnings reports scheduled.

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MARKET SNAPSHOT

• Equities are up.
• Treasuries are up.
• Crude oil is down.
• The U.S. Dollar is down.
• Gold is up.

REAR VIEW

• The former U.S. President stated that war with Iran could soon be over.
• The G7 is scheduled to discuss a potential release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) tomorrow.
• The former U.S. President did not rule out seizing Iranian oil.
• The former U.S. President indicated that fentanyl tariffs would be reimposed on China under a different legal framework.
• The former U.S. President is set to review options to address the oil price spike.
• Inflation expectations from the New York Federal Reserve remained relatively stable.
• The French President is organizing a ship-escort mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reports regarding Saudi oil production cuts have been mixed.

COMING UP

• Data releases scheduled:
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence (February)
  • Chinese Trade Balance (January-February)
  • Norwegian CPI (February)
  • German/French Trade Balance (January)
  • U.S. NFIB (February)
  • Weekly ADP data
  • Existing Home Sales (February)
• Events scheduled:
  • EIA STEO Supply
  • Germany, U.S. Earnings
  • Volkswagen Earnings

MARKET WRAP

The trading day was marked by significant market volatility, particularly in WTI crude oil, which experienced its second-largest daily price swing ever. Market sentiment and price movements reversed sharply in the final 40 minutes of equity trading following comments from the former U.S. President in a CBS phone interview. He suggested that the war could be ending soon, stating that Iran has "no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force," and that the U.S. is "very far" ahead of the initially estimated 4-5 week timeframe.

These remarks led to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent reaching lows of approximately USD 81/bbl and USD 83/bbl, respectively, after having peaked earlier at USD 119/bbl. U.S. equity indices rallied, closing in positive territory, with most sectors (excluding Financials and Energy) reversing losses to finish higher. The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended gains against the U.S. dollar, the British pound moved into positive territory, and the Japanese yen reduced losses. Overall, the U.S. dollar weakened, declining by approximately half a percent after a period of strength.

Treasuries experienced a notable increase in demand as crude oil prices fell. Attention is now focused on the former U.S. President's press conference. Spot gold also reversed direction to close the day with gains. The direction of trade shifted entirely in the last 40 minutes, although crude oil had already pared a significant portion of its earlier gains due to bearish factors. WTI and Brent had initially gapped higher at the open due to weekend escalations in the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but prices declined following reports that the G7 would discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves in an emergency meeting. The G7 discussed oil prices but did not reach an agreement, with a follow-up meeting scheduled. However, the dramatic swings in oil prices following the former U.S. President's comments may alter the agenda. Middle East geopolitical developments have been a dominant market influence and are expected to remain so. U.S. inflation data this week may be less influential due to the recent volatility.

FIXED INCOME

T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 2+ TICKS LOWER AT 112-11+

T-notes gapped lower after oil surged but completely reversed, and more, as the former U.S. President said the Iran war could be over soon.

• 2-year yield: -1.0bps at 3.546%
• 3-year yield: -2.1bps at 3.560%
• 5-year yield: -3.2bps at 3.685%
• 7-year yield: -3.3bps at 3.883%
• 10-year yield: -3.6bps at 4.096%
• 20-year yield: -4.0bps at 4.687%
• 30-year yield: -4.2bps at 4.714%

THE DAY:

T-notes began the week with a gap lower, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.216% as oil prices surged to USD 119/bbl. Concerns about a prolonged war leading to sustained higher oil prices and increased inflation caused traders to reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the first 25bps cut no longer fully priced in until October (compared to September after the previous Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report). However, reports of global efforts to mitigate high energy costs led to a significant paring of oil price gains. This was further driven by comments from the former U.S. President to CBS News after the settlement, suggesting that the Iran war is largely complete. Oil prices subsequently declined, entering negative territory for the day and testing USD 80.00/bbl at the low point. This caused T-notes to move higher post-settlement, with Treasury trading primarily influenced by the inflationary implications of the Iran war. Geopolitical updates remain a key focus this week, along with upcoming supply and U.S. inflation data. The CPI and PCE data will not reflect the recent rally in crude prices and may be considered outdated, but will still provide insight into the pricing environment leading up to the war.

SUPPLY

Notes

• The U.S. will sell USD 58 billion of 3-year notes on March 10th, USD 29 billion of 10-year notes on March 11th, and USD 22 billion of 30-year bonds on March 12th; all to settle on March 16th.

Bills

• The U.S. will sell USD 90 billion of 6-week bills on March 10th; to settle March 12th.
• The U.S. sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.605%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92x; 6-month bills were sold at a high rate of 3.535%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09x.

STIRS/OPERATIONS

• Federal Reserve Rate Cut Pricing (bps): March 0, April 1.7bps, June 8.7, December 36.4bps.
• The New York Fed RRP operation demand was at 0.33 billion (previous 1.51 billion) across 4 counterparties (previous 5) on March 9th.
• SOFR was at 3.65% (previous 3.66%), with volumes at USD 3.198 trillion (previous USD 3.294 trillion) on March 6th.
• EFFR was at 3.64% (previous 3.64%), with volumes at USD 102 billion (previous USD 106 billion) on March 6th.

CRUDE

NOTE: Oil prices tumbled post-settlement, and fell into negative territory on the day with WTI and Brent hitting troughs of USD 81.19/bbl and 83.63, respectively, after the former U.S. President to CBS said "the war could be over soon."

WTI (J6) SETTLED USD 3.87 HIGHER AT 94.77/BBL; BRENT (K6) SETTLED USD 6.27 HIGHER AT 98.96/BBL

The crude oil complex closed the day with gains, although significantly below peak levels, in a highly volatile day for the energy sector.

• WTI and Brent crude oil prices gapped higher at the open due to weekend escalations in the Middle East conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices eventually reached peaks of USD 119.48/bbl and USD 119.50/bbl, respectively, representing a roughly 30% increase from the previous Friday's close. However, concerns about the surge in oil prices led to a partial reversal of gains after the Financial Times reported that the G7 would discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves in an emergency meeting, with a source suggesting a joint release in the range of 300-400 million barrels, 25-30% of the IEA's reserves, would be appropriate. Following the meeting between EIA/G-7, the French finance minister said strategic oil reserves are ready to use to stabilise oil market, but G7 not there yet, while the Japanese finance minister remarked that G7 finance ministers would push relevant ministers to release emergency reserves, and agreed they'll closely monitor energy markets and take necessary action. Later reports echoed the earlier ones, that the US believes a joint release of 300-400mln bbls is appropriate, with G7 energy ministers holding further talks on Tuesday. Adding to the reversal in oil prices, was WaPo stating a few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran, suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.
• Contributing to the paring of gains from the U.S. side were reports that: 1) The former U.S. President stated there is no reason to panic over the Iran war oil-price surge, and says 'I have a plan for everything', NYP reports; 2) The former U.S. President will reportedly review options to combat the spike in oil prices as soon as Monday; options under discussion with the G7 and U.S. agencies include releasing strategic reserves, limiting exports, intervening in futures, waiving taxes, and easing the Jones Act.
• Overall, WTI and Brent closed with gains, but significantly below their earlier peaks, with a daily range of approximately USD 26/bbl for WTI and USD 22/bbl for Brent. Looking ahead, focus remains on the Middle East conflict and further developments and measures to address the surge in oil prices, as de-escalation does not appear imminent.

EQUITIES

CLOSES:

• SPX: +0.84% at 6,797
• NDX: +1.32% at 24,967
• DJI: +0.50% at 47,741
• RUT: +1.05% at 2,552

SECTORS:

• Technology: +1.80%
• Communication Services: +1.13%
• Health: +0.95%
• Consumer Staples: +0.57%
• Industrials: +0.56%
• Materials: +0.31%
• Real Estate: +0.23%
• Utilities: +0.19%
• Consumer Discretionary: +0.11%
• Energy: -0.43%
• Financials: -0.52%

EUROPEAN CLOSES:

• Euro Stoxx 50: -0.54% at 5,689
• Dax 40: -0.83% at 23,394
• FTSE 100: -0.34% at 10,250
• CAC 40: -0.98% at 7,915
• FTSE MIB: -0.29% at 44,025
• IBEX 35: -0.86% at 16,928
• PSI: -0.78% at 8,876
• SMI: -1.08% at 12,955
• AEX: +0.27% at 983

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Vertiv (VRT), Lumentum (LITE), & EchoStar (SATS) will be added to the SPX, effective before market open on March 23.
• Match (MTCH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), & Paycom (PAYC) will be removed from the SPX, effective before market open on March 23.
• Starboard Value has built a sizeable stake in Lamb Weston (LW); also, to be removed from SPX effective March 23rd.
• Live Nation (LYV) is close to settling a federal antitrust lawsuit without selling Ticketmaster.
• Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) confirms it will sell WeGovy and Ozempic on the Hims & Hers (HIMS) platform.

FX

• In foreign exchange markets, the day's price movements reversed after the former U.S. President told CBS in a phone interview that the war could be over soon, stating, "I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force," and adding that the U.S. is "very far" ahead of the initial 4-5 week estimated timeframe. As a result, the U.S. Dollar was negatively impacted, with the Dollar Index reversing notably into negative territory. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and British pound gained on risk-on sentiment. USD/JPY reversed from approximately 158.35 to 157.75, as market participants await the former U.S. President's previously scheduled press conference. Since these moves, money markets are no longer fully pricing in a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike this year, whereas earlier in the day, two hikes (50bps) were priced in.

BELOW IS THE DAY BEFORE THE FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT SAID "WAR COULD BE OVER SOON":

• The Dollar Index was bid to start the week amid haven flows as the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, with no sign of it abating or peace negotiations. As you can imagine, there was once again a plethora of geopols headlines ( see crude wrap for more details ), but one of the headlines is that the G7 is meeting again tomorrow to discuss a possible oil reserve release, with US reportedly believing a joint release of 300-400mln barrels of oil is appropriate. Note, no decision has been made yet and while they met today they didn’t come to a decision, but on Tuesday they may. There is no Fed speak given blackout ahead of the confab next Wednesday, where the Committee have a lot to digest ( Newsquawk analysis piece here ). Also a lack of data, aside from the release of NY Fed SCE, whereby labour market expectations decline slightly overall, inflation expectations tick down at short-term Horizon, and delinquency expectations improve. Ahead, all focus resides around the Middle East, although there is US CPI (Wed), PCE and JOLTS (Fri), albeit with the inflation data likely taking a back seat given the recent developments.
• G10 currencies are being primarily influenced by U.S. Dollar flows and the broader macroeconomic environment, rather than currency-specific factors. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the only G10 currencies gaining against the U.S. Dollar, with the Australian dollar having been the worst-performing G10 currency in the spot market over the past 5 days, potentially attempting to recover some of its losses. This occurred despite Australia being an energy exporter, as it has historically traded as the risky currency of the G10. Safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, were the underperformers, impacted by the aforementioned U.S. Dollar strength, with USD/JPY reaching a high of 158.90, continuing to approach the speculated intervention zone of 159-160. However, sustained strength in oil prices may reduce the impact of any FX intervention.
• The British pound, Canadian dollar, and euro all experienced losses to varying degrees. The Canadian dollar initially performed best overnight as oil prices surged, but as those gains were pared back, so too did the Canadian dollar, ending the session with mild losses. The euro extended losses as higher energy prices impacted net-importers and increased inflation expectations, with money markets this morning fully priced in two ECB hikes in 2026 (vs. none pre-war), albeit it is now back to 1 hike priced in by year-end. Regarding the Middle East, the French President stated that France is "setting up a ship-escort mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz," adding that the escort mission is possible once the hottest phase of the war is over. This prompted modest upside in the EUR at the time, but the pair looks to end the session towards the top end of a 1.1507-1.1599 range.